Good morning
I hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Black Friday is here so retail stocks will be in focus for many as we hear stories about crowds and store sales. I think I have made it pretty clear how I feel about trading retail stocks but just in case > I am not a fen of retail and I typically try to avoid the space. There may be some good trade opportunities out there in the space but if they are a typical brick and mortar store with no on-line presence I would tread carefully.
Equities are higher in premarket along with oil and the dollar while gold is slightly red. Crude is actually at 2 year highs with futures are up 1% to $58.57/bbl following a partial shutdown of the Keystone XL pipeline and ahead of a likely output cut extension next week by OPEC and a group of other producers. In a sign of a tightening market, both WTI and Brent benchmarks are in backwardation, where spot prices are higher than those for future delivery, which makes it unattractive for traders to store oil for later sale.
ETFs: USO, OIL, UWT, UCO, DWT, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, WTIU, OILX, WTID, USOI
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Stocks To Watch
1. MARA RIOT UEPS SRAX MGTI all these bitcoin plays are hot with the exception of MGTI could play catch up in sympathy do not chase any of these
2. IPDN Potential red to green continuation play insider buying Thin float do not chase
3. MRO potential swing or long term hold play like the daily setup
4. FMSA another nice daily setup in the oil space
5. TEVA very thick stock new CEO making the moves necessary to get the company back on track more of along term hold play
6. SSC gapper potential day trade or higher risk swing nice looking daily
7. DPW gapper potential day trade do not chase it need volume for liquidity do not chase
8. WFT thick stock potential swing or long term hold off bounce of potential support
Friday's economic calendar
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Crude back at two year highs
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Thanksgiving online sales pass $1.5B
U.S. shoppers splurged more than $1.52B online by Thanksgiving evening and more bargain hunters turned up at stores as they opened their doors early ahead of Black Friday.
According to Adobe, which tracks 80% of online transactions at the top 100 U.S. retailers, consumer spending rose 16.8% Y/Y until 5 p.m. ET.
At least from the stock market perspective, history tells us this is a very good time for retail stocks. Since 2007, from a week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains 5%.
Previously: Thanksgiving shopping puts retail on watch (Nov. 23 2017)
ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, PBJ, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXG, IYC, SCC, FXD, RHS, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, PSL, PSCC, SZK, FDIS, FSTA, PSCD, PEZ
Regulatory crackdown weighs on Chinese stocks
Chinese equities saw heavy losses overnight following new liquidity rules in the country.
Authorities have also introduced other measures, such as restrictions in loans to the shadow banking sector, and there is a general view that China is stepping up the deleveraging of its domestic economy.
Shanghai dropped 2.3%, Shenzhen closed down 2.9% and the tech-heavy Chinext composite lost 2.8%.
ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, CAF, EWH, KWEB, YANG, CYB, GXC, FXP, PGJ, MCHI, HAO, CQQQ, TAO, CNY, CHIX, PEK, CHIQ, CHN, TDF, KBA, QQQC, ASHS, XPP, CNXT, CHAU, YXI, CN, FCA, YAO, CHAD, GCH, CXSE, JFC, FXCH, CHII, CHIE, ECNS, AFTY, KFYP, CHIM, EWHS, FCHI, CWEB, FHK, ASHX, CNYA, HAHA, CNHX, XINA, KGRN, OBOR
Source Seeking Alpha
